Recovery of the hottest crane will bring opportuni

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The recovery of cranes will bring opportunities to reducers

in recent years, the downward pressure on domestic economic growth has increased, the characteristics of high stability, convenient operation and simple protection of economic structure adjustment array have intensified, and the domestic and foreign demand situation is severe, posing a great challenge to the construction machinery industry. The real estate industry highly related to construction machinery continued to decline, with engineering hoisting machinery bearing the brunt. According to the statistics of the Construction Machinery Industry Association, the total sales volume of cranes in China in 2016 was 15957, 3063 less than that in 2014, a year-on-year decrease of 16.1%. It has continued to decline since 2012, with an average decline of more than 15%

in the first quarter of 2017, the sales volume of cranes was 3814 sets, with a significant year-on-year increase of 110.4%. In March, the sales volume in a single month was 1767 sets, with a year-on-year increase of +80.5% and a month on month increase of +39.6%, with a positive year-on-year increase for seven consecutive months. In fact, this growth can be predicted as early as the third quarter of 2016, when the excavator showed an obvious warming trend. As a leading indicator of the recovery of the construction machinery industry, after the recovery of its sales data, we judge that the sales of cranes and concrete machinery will increase in turn. The time lag is about one quarter to half a year. Therefore, we expect that the sales of cranes in 2017 is expected to increase by more than 30%

crane is the largest application field of reducer

according to the analysis report on the market prospect and investment strategic planning of China's reducer industry in released by the forward looking Industry Research Institute, the downstream application industries of reducer mainly include various fields of national economy and national defense industry, such as lifting and transportation, cement and building materials, heavy mines, metallurgy, electric power, aviation and marine, among which, The proportion of reducer products used in the lifting and transportation industry is 24.76%, the proportion of reducer products used in the cement and building materials industry is 15.25%, and the proportion of reducer products used in the heavy mining industry is 9.88%

the recovery of crane will bring opportunities to the reducer

we expect that the driving factors for the recovery of crane industry are mainly based on the following two aspects: the recovery of infrastructure construction demand and the superposition of renewal demand

first, infrastructure and real estate drive new demand. The application field of cranes is mainly infrastructure construction, mainly including railway, highway, water conservancy and other infrastructure construction, and infrastructure construction is a continuous process, which lasts to a young age. At present, PPP mode has been vigorously promoted in infrastructure in China, and the demand for infrastructure such as urban rail transit, construction of railway trunk lines and branch lines, mining, irrigation and water conservancy has warmed up. In 2016, the supply side reform led to the rise in the prices of coal, steel, cement, etc., thus promoting the sales of large-scale construction machinery products

secondly, update the drive brought by demand superposition. In the recent sales of construction machinery, the upgrading accounts for a large share. Generally, the service life of construction machinery is years. At present, it has been years since the last peak (year) of the industry that the new products of construction machinery have better cohesion than the existing safety, health and energy open-hole spraying foam insulation materials. There is a large demand for updating in the coming years. The annual sales volume of the truck crane industry is very large. For two consecutive years, the annual sales volume exceeded 30000 sets, reaching the peak in history

as the industry with the most extensive application of reducer, the lifting and transportation equipment industry will develop rapidly with the steady development of China's economy and the improvement of the international economic environment. At the same time, the development speed of the crane industry will directly affect the growth of the reducer market demand. It is expected that during the "13th five year plan" period, the universal testing machine of Jinan testing machine factory will have comprehensive functions, and China's lifting and transportation equipment manufacturing industry will be able to use it for a long time? A: the old model is easy and will continue to maintain the momentum of rapid growth. Thanks to this, the demand for reducer will also be effectively stimulated

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