Monthly report on cable raw material aluminum in A

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The monthly report of cable raw materials (aluminum) in April 2019

I. fundamentals

1. According to the data of the Bureau of statistics, China's raw aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production in March increased by 3.4% year-on-year to 2.88 million tons; The total output in the first quarter was 8.57 million tons, an increase of 3.9% over the same period last year. With the current price rising steadily, the cost of electrolytic aluminum moves down, and the enterprise profit recovers, which may stimulate the release of new production and resumption of production capacity. It is expected that the output of electrolytic aluminum in April will still be in the growth trend, which is unfavorable to the price

2. In March 2019, China's alumina production was about 5.71 million tons, with a month on month increase of about 3.6% and a year-on-year increase of about 3.1%. China's alumina production in this month totaled about 16.94 million tons, an increase of about 4.0% over the same period last year. According to statistics, the output of alumina in Shandong Province was about 1.93 million tons in March, unchanged month on month; The output of alumina in Shanxi was about 1.69 million tons, an increase of about 4.7% month on month; The output of Henan Province was about 850000 tons, an increase of about 10.4% month on month; The output of Guangxi is about 650000 tons, an increase of about 3.2% month on month; The output of Guizhou was 350000 tons, an increase of about 6.1% month on month

3. According to the data of the General Administration of customs, China exported 546000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products (including raw aluminum, aluminum alloy and semi-finished aluminum products) in March, up 60.6% from 340000 tons in February, and an increase of 21.3% from 450000 tons in the same period last year. In June, China exported 1441000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, an increase of 13.6% year-on-year

4. According to customs data, China imported 126000 tons of waste aluminum in March, a year-on-year decrease of 40.5% and a month on month increase of 54.0%. The total amount of imported waste aluminum in January was 332000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 31.7%

II. Market review

the trend of Shanghai aluminum index this month is slightly stronger. From the perspective of trend, the improvement of fundamentals is still expected to drive the aluminum price stronger. However, the recent aluminum price continues to strengthen, which does not rule out the need for consolidation. For the time being, we should pay attention to the support of 14000 level, and the overall trend is still strong. Therefore, it is expected that there is little room for decline, and there is still the possibility of rise in the later period. It is expected that Shanghai aluminum will rise slightly in May, and we should pay attention to 1 450000 range shocks

in the external market, Lun aluminum fell in shock this month; From the disk view, the lack of good news to boost, short-term Lun aluminum to maintain a low shock market, the bottom temporarily focus on the 1800 level support, even if it falls below, it will repeatedly test this level, and stand firm, the deep fall space is limited, it is expected that Lun aluminum will rebound after the low shock in May, and pay attention to the dollar interregional shock

in the market, due to the relatively flat price trend of electrolytic aluminum in mid to early April, traders' operable profit space is limited, and their enthusiasm to enter the market is not active, while downstream companies mostly maintain the on-demand procurement strategy; Since the middle and late days, with the sharp rebound in prices, market transactions have shown a supply of goods, but most of them are reflected among traders. Downstream enterprises are not willing to receive goods due to fear of high sentiment. Later, due to the strong overall price volatility, downstream enterprises are forced to receive goods at high prices, mainly buying a small amount on demand. However, driven by traders, the overall market transactions are acceptable

East China: macroeconomic improvement and the cost end of electrolytic aluminum stopped falling and stabilized, coupled with the gradual improvement of downstream consumption, electrolytic aluminum destocking showed signs of acceleration, boosting aluminum prices in April. The overall performance was rising after shocks, and the trend was better than that in March. The transformation of East China spot aluminum station was the 14000 mark on the general trend, repeatedly hitting new highs in the past six months. By the end of April, the spot aluminum in East China was between yuan/ton, up 260 yuan/ton from the end of March, or nearly 2%

South China: 4 the price of aluminum ingots in South China rose after the shock, and most of the increase was reflected in the middle and late ten days. After the price of aluminum ingots with tickets rose to around 14500, the upward momentum was significantly weakened. As of the end of the month, it was between yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton compared with the end of March, and the increase was larger than that in East China. It was mainly driven by the slow recovery of downstream demand in South China after the year and the gradual improvement in April, This is also the main reason for the continuous decline of electrolytic aluminum inventory in the South China Sea in April; Intermediary transactions are also more active, with overall transactions in April better than in March

III. in terms of inventory

LME aluminum inventory showed a downward trend as a whole this month. However, on April 29, Lun aluminum inventory increased significantly, with a single day increase of 4.7%, the largest increase in four months; The total inventory reached 1.069 million tons, down 60100 tons from the end of March, a decrease of 5.32%. The rapid growth of inventory has put pressure on the price of Lun aluminum. Aluminum inventory on the exchange showed a downward trend this month. As of April 26, aluminum inventory on the exchange was 638000 tons, a decrease of 97000 tons or 13.19% from the end of March. Domestic social inventory: as of April 29, 285000 tons in Shanghai, 532000 tons in Wuxi, 115000 tons in Hangzhou, 107000 tons in Gongyi, 323000 tons in Nanhai, 58000 tons in Tianjin, 22000 tons in Linyi, 28000 tons in Chongqing, and a total of 1.47 million tons of aluminum ingots in consumer areas; Inventory continued to decline, making Shanghai aluminum firm

IV. scrap market

the price of scrap aluminum in April rose significantly compared with that in March, and the shippers were more enthusiastic about shipping, but most of them shipped at a high price. The overall supply of goods in the market was abundant. Scrap aluminum profiles and aluminum wires were still favored by the market, and the price rose positively; While the supply of miscellaneous aluminum, cans, aluminum chips and aluminum shavings followed the rise, which was mainly due to the problem of taste and purity; In addition, it is understood that in the middle and early ten days, manufacturers of recycled aluminum and aluminum rods prepared goods more actively, but later, with the rise of raw material prices and the slow rise of downstream recycled aluminum alloy ingot prices, the profits narrowed significantly. Manufacturers began to control the volume of goods received, and the price reduction was more obvious. The overall market transaction was still more active than that in March

in April, the price of scrap aluminum moved up with the aluminum ingot, and the increase in South China was obvious, mostly in yuan. By the end of April, the mainstream of South China machine aluminum was around 10400; The increase in other regions is slightly inferior, mostly near an external wall insulation system that can meet the existing energy-saving requirements with a single wall material of 100 yuan. At present, the price of pure cans can be Canadian dollars/ton near 11900 aluminum wires and 8800 cans in East China; Fans of waste aluminum materials can watch wonderful ball games. According to the needs of businesses, the price range has been widened, and the mainstream coating is nearby

post holiday market forecast: the fundamentals of aluminum have improved slightly, the price of electrolytic aluminum is relatively strong, or it may boost the price of scrap aluminum. After the holiday, scrap aluminum may stabilize the small and medium-sized rising market, and it is appropriate for shippers to be beneficial to shipment, and beware of price decline

v. market outlook

the loose macro environment, the decline of domestic and foreign inventories, optimistic demand expectations, the coexistence of multiple positive factors supported the rise of aluminum prices, and the spot aluminum prices rose this month. Judging from the current consumption situation, electrolytic aluminum has a relatively high investment in construction, electronic and electrical research and development, and the consumption in the transportation field is constantly increasing. In particular, China's counter cyclical infrastructure investment, the continuous improvement of urbanization rate, and the urgent demand for traffic lightweight are expected to increase consumption growth rate more than supply growth, the domestic supply and demand gap may expand, and the aluminum price may rise. In May, the spot aluminum price may continue to maintain a strong shock

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