Monthly report on cable raw material aluminum in J

The monthly report of cable raw materials (aluminum) in June 2019

I. fundamentals

1. Due to the rise in the price of electrolytic aluminum in May, the production enthusiasm of electrolytic aluminum enterprises has increased, the willingness to restart production capacity has increased, and the output has increased; According to data, China's primary aluminum output in May 2019 was 2.98 million tons, an increase of 60000 tons from April, and an increase over the same period last year; In 2019, China's primary aluminum output was 14.45 million tons, an increase of 2.7% over the same period last year

2. Although the centralized reduction and shutdown of alumina in Shanxi Province last month due to environmental protection and other reasons made the market worried about the shortage of aluminum raw materials, the price rise also stimulated the enthusiasm of manufacturers to start work. The data released by the National Bureau of statistics showed that China's alumina production in May increased by 0.1% year-on-year to 6.243 million tons

3. According to customs data, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products in May were 361000 tons, down 23.2% from 470000 tons in the same period last year and 10.9% from 405000 tons in April

4. China's scrap metal import volume in May rose 8.6% month on month to 380000 tons. China's monthly import of scrap metal was 1.46 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 40.7%. Among them, the import of scrap aluminum was 180000 tons, an increase of 40000 tons compared with April, a year-on-year increase of 57.8%, mainly due to the restrictions on the import of scrap metal on July 1

II. Market review

the trend of Shanghai aluminum this month was slightly weak, macro weakness, weak consumption, and alumina continued to move down after falling below the 3000 level, and the decline did not stop. Under the pressure of multiple negative factors, Shanghai aluminum fell all the way since the beginning of the month, falling below the 14000 level in the session, and the lowest fell to 13725. Then copper prices rose due to factors such as the strike in Chile, but the lack of substantive positive boost, obviously lack of momentum to follow up, The Shanghai aluminum index is still under pressure at the 14000 mark in the session. If the purchase is assumed from the trend, it must be the ball screw. The downstream has entered the off-season of consumption, and the uncertainty of macro factors still inhibits the trend of aluminum prices. It is difficult for short-term aluminum prices to do anything. Continue to pay attention to 1 The range of 40000 fluctuates, and the overall trend is still weak, with the possibility of falling below the low point of this month. It is expected that the fluctuation range of Shanghai aluminum index in July is 1 410000

in the external market, Lun aluminum first fluctuated and then rose slightly this month. At the beginning of the month, there was no positive boost, and the macro short dominated the metal trend. Lun aluminum fluctuated and fell slightly, and the lowest intraday fell to $1745, a new low in 29 months. However, trade relations eased, and the rise in copper prices boosted, Lun aluminum ushered in a short rebound, breaking through the pressure level of 1800 in the intraday, and the highest climbed to $1838, but there was no substantive positive boost, Lunaluminum's upward momentum is limited, and the pressure at the 1800 level remains. Lunaluminum tests this level again. From the perspective of trend, the market's attention to g at the end of the month has significantly improved the results of the 20 summit on living comfort, so trading is cautious. In the short term, lunaluminum continues to fluctuate near the 1800 level, but in the medium and long term, macro bad news still dominates the metal trend, and in the off-season of consumption in recent two months, aluminum prices are unlikely to rise sharply, The overall fluctuation range of Lun aluminum in July is expected to be USD

in the market, the market still shows that supply exceeds demand. Especially after entering June, downstream enterprises gradually turn to the off-season, orders weaken, demand weakens, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods in the market is not high. Coupled with the macroeconomic instability, merchants are not optimistic about the future market, and the activity of traders is not as good as that in May. The overall market turnover declined slightly

in East China, due to the continuous decline of aluminum oxide price at the cost side of electrolytic aluminum, the current price in East China has fallen to around 2850, and the downward cost has brought great negative impact on the aluminum price. Coupled with the tension of early trade relations, the center of gravity of aluminum price significantly moved down in June, with the lowest falling to around 13800. By the end of June, the spot aluminum in East China has fallen to between yuan/ton, down 370 yuan from the end of May

in South China, the price of aluminum ingots in South China fluctuated and fell in June. The operating range was between and by the end of June, down 370 yuan from the end of May. In the South China market, the market transactions in the middle and early ten days are OK, the traders are more active, and the decrease of downstream orders is not obvious, but the transactions in the middle and late ten days have weakened, and the macro is unstable, so the merchants are more cautious

III. in terms of inventory

LME aluminum inventory continued its downward trend this week. As of June 27, the total inventory tons of LME aluminum decreased by 13.1% compared with May. From the perspective of trend, the overall downward trend of LME aluminum remained unchanged. This month, the aluminum inventory of the Shanghai stock exchange continued to show a downward trend. As of June 21, the aluminum inventory of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 428900 tons, a decrease of 78000 tons or 15.46% from the end of May. As of June 27, the domestic social inventory was 208000 tons in Shanghai, 353000 tons in Wuxi, 60000 tons in Hangzhou, and the Gong punching and cutting machine was rated at 60 tons, 101000 tons in Yizhou, 246000 tons in Nanhai, 54000 tons in Tianjin, 7000 tons in Linyi, and 22000 tons in Chongqing. The aluminum ingot inventory in consumer areas totaled 1051000 tons

IV. waste aluminum market

the performance of waste aluminum market was sluggish in June, following the decline of aluminum ingot price. The decline in southern China was mostly 350 yuan. At present, the mainstream price of clean machine aluminum is around 10000 yuan; Other regions also experienced declines in varying degrees, among which the price of aluminum profiles was relatively resistant to decline, only about 100 yuan lower than that in May. The price of low-grade waste aluminum such as machine aluminum and miscellaneous aluminum fell significantly. At present, the mainstream receiving price of aluminum alloy spraying used materials in East China is around 10100

in terms of market transactions, the market supply of scrap aluminum is relatively abundant in the middle and early June. With the continuous decline of prices, some cargo holders have covered up the goods, and the market supply has decreased; Transaction differentiation occurred. First, for recycled aluminum plants, since June, the price of downstream ADC12 Aluminum alloy has fallen so far. At present, the lowest price in East China has fallen to around 13200, the manufacturer's profits have been seriously narrowed, and even suffered losses. They are not enthusiastic about purchasing waste aluminum raw materials, and control the receiving volume and receiving price. Some small and medium-sized recycled aluminum plants have been shut down; Second, in terms of aluminum rod and aluminum profile factories, compared with recycled aluminum factories, the transaction is OK, and it declines slightly with orders, but aluminum rod and profile factories still maintain normal procurement, which is also the main reason why the price of aluminum alloy materials is relatively low-grade supply

in the future, it is predicted that the weather is gradually hot, and the market supply is reduced. In addition, since July 1, the import of waste aluminum is restricted, which makes the supply tighter, or limits the space for the decline of waste aluminum price. However, considering the poor market demand in the off-season, it is also difficult to predict the rise. It is expected that the price of waste aluminum in July may stop falling songsorb? Cs400 color and stability market

v. market outlook

this month, Lun aluminum first fluctuated and then rose slightly, lacking a substantial positive boost. Lun aluminum's upward momentum is limited, and the pressure at the 1800 level remains. Lun aluminum tested this level again. From the perspective of trend, the market paid attention to the results of the G20 summit at the end of the month, so trading was cautious. In the short term, Lun aluminum continued to fluctuate near the 1800 level, but in the medium and long term, macro bad news still dominated the metal trend, and the consumption off-season in recent two months, Aluminum prices are unlikely to rise sharply. It is expected that the overall fluctuation range of Lun aluminum in July will be USD. Macro weakness, weak consumption, and alumina continued to move down after falling below the 3000 level, and the decline did not stop. Multiple negative factors pressured, and the trend of Shanghai aluminum this month was slightly weak. From the trend, aluminum prices have entered the consumption off-season, and the uncertainty of macro factors still inhibited the trend of aluminum prices. It is difficult for short-term aluminum prices to do anything. Continue to pay attention to 1 The range of 40000 fluctuates, and the overall trend is still weak, with the possibility of falling below the low point of this month. It is expected that the fluctuation range of Shanghai aluminum index in July is 1 410000