The hottest short-term pulp futures price may test

The short-term pulp futures price may once again test the early low support

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core tip: [China Packaging News] after a short rebound, the main 1906 contract of pulp futures will return to weakness if there is a test piece broken outside the marking line. It closed at 5094 yuan/ton yesterday, down 88 yuan or 1.7%. Analysts said that after a short rebound in the current paper mill warehouse

[China Packaging News], the main 1906 contract of pulp futures returned to weakness, closing at 5094 yuan/ton yesterday, down 88 yuan or 1.7%. Analysts said that at present, the paper mill inventory is on the high side, and there is no obvious destocking driving factor on the supply and demand side of pulp. Superimposed on the accumulated inventory expectation after the import continues to arrive in Hong Kong, the future probability still needs to destock through price reduction. Therefore, the short-term pulp futures price may test the early low support again

I. weak market demand

the latest data shows that the paper price index in November was 1119.51 points, down 10.77% month on month and up 2.33% year on year. 3. Electromechanical

Ruida futures analysts said that the decline in the paper price index was mainly affected by the continued decline in the packaging paper market. Due to the great downward pressure on the domestic economy and the reduction of export trade, the demand for packaging paper is sluggish. In addition, since autumn and winter, under the high pressure of domestic environmental protection, small and medium-sized paper manufacturers have been forced to shut down or reduce production. The high inventory of paper products around the country and the weak market demand have led to a further decline in prices. The price of short-term pulp may be maintained. 13. Control experimental method: microcomputer Servo Automatic Control of low-level finishing trend

"the domestic paper mill shutdown news in December is still continuous, and the packaging paper market is expected to usher in the peak demand season of the Spring Festival near the end of the year. However, at present, the paper mill inventory is high, enterprises have a strong mentality of going to inventory and withdrawing funds at the end of the year, and the short-term market news is limited. In the future, it will still be dominated by digesting inventory." Zhongzhou futures analysts said

in terms of spot, the spot quotation of imported coniferous pulp in Shandong is relatively stable, and the average price of Chile Silver Star is 5575 yuan/ton. The supply of wood pulp in the spot market in Guangdong is stable, and the quotation of needle pulp from Chile Silver Star is yuan/ton

second, short-term high and short

from the perspective of fundamentals, CITIC futures analysts said that the latest inventory days of global manufacturers showed that in October, needle pulp and broad-leaved pulp were 32 days and 41 days respectively. Compared with historical data, the inventory level of coniferous pulp is still at a high level, while that of broad-leaved pulp is at a normal level. Considering that the demand is weak at the end of the year, and the supply is picking up steadily, the expectation of stock accumulation is still strong. Superimposed on the current high inventory, manufacturers are facing greater pressure to destock. As of the end of November, the inventories of Changshu and Qingdao ports were 540000 tons and 900000 tons respectively. Qingdao's inventory continued to hit a new high, and the pressure was very great. In addition, the recent broad-leaved inventory outside the port has significantly affected the inventory, and it is expected that broad-leaved pulp will drag down coniferous pulp again

from the perspective of the inventory level of finished products in the paper factory, excluding the price factor of wood pulp, the inventory in October was 9.8 million tons, which has continued to accumulate since September 2017. At present, it is at a medium high level, and there is also a certain pressure

in terms of downstream profit level, at present, the prices of all kinds of paper continue to be weak, and the processing fees also continue to fall. On the whole, the downstream is currently in a loss state, and there is no obvious repair trend, which will be a continuous pressure on the future market of pulp

"at present, there is no obvious destocking driving factor on the supply and demand side of pulp, and there is a large inventory pressure of raw materials and finished products in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain. Superimposed on the accumulated inventory expectation after the import continues to arrive in Hong Kong, the future probability still needs to destock through price reduction, which can lead to the adjustment of profit structure, which will continue to bring pressure to the disk." CITIC futures analysts said

for the future market, Zhongzhou futures analysts said that the rebound of pulp futures prices fell due to resistance, and the early low support may be tested again in the short term. At present, it is treated with the idea of high short

Ruida futures analysts said that the pulp futures tested the first-line support position of 4950 yuan/ton below and the regional pressure level of 5300 yuan/ton above, with short-term or range fluctuations