The hottest short sellers are weak, and Shanghai J

Shanghai Rubber continued the bull market, ignoring the sharp decline in crude oil. Yesterday, Shanghai Rubber rebounded significantly after a flat opening. In the future, supported by many important factors, Tianjiao will continue its bull market pace

first, the internal and external inventory fell sharply. At present, spot traders are reluctant to sell, and rubber inventories at home and abroad continue to decline. Last week, the inventory in Shanghai was only 22395 tons, the lowest level since 2004. Although it has increased in recent weeks, the existing inventory is only enough to maintain the consumption of oneortwo large factories for one month, while there are more than 300 large and small tire factories in China, so the demand can be imagined. In addition, Shanghai Jiaotong has been linked upside down with the spot price, which makes the spot traders unwilling to throw the finished goods in their hands into the futures market, resulting in the situation that inventories are only reduced but not increased, and the price rise is inevitable. As of June 10, the daily rubber inventory also decreased by 5% to 10683 tons compared with May 30, with a year-on-year decrease of 36%. It is expected that the inventory decline will continue and will not improve until late July

secondly, the inventory of downstream factories is exhausted. Due to more rain in the production area, more typhoons this year, and the quality of crude oil, it seems that the implementation plan for the development of bio based materials industry in Tianjin, Shenzhen, Wuhan and Changchun has not been approved, the price rise has raised the transportation cost, and the freezing weather at the beginning of the year in China has delayed domestic rubber cutting, which will affect the total supply of rubber this year. At present, the output of raw materials has not yet returned to the normal level (at present, it is only about 70% - 80% of the normal level). The recent trading volume of raw materials is small, and the price has been advancing by leaps and bounds; Rubber merchants had to rush to buy high priced raw materials for delivery, resulting in a serious reluctance to sell in the market. After cutting, the raw materials that were originally insufficient were even more scarce after being collected by rubber farmers; In addition, most domestic traders have no inventory on hand and are waiting for the peak of rubber production, but they find that the price of rubber has become higher and higher since June. Therefore, traders dare not buy a large number of ships. This situation has lasted for nearly a month and a half, resulting in less and less spot supply. Overseas spot resources continue to be tight, and Southeast Asian rubber farmers are obviously reluctant to sell, waiting for higher prices, which has led to delays in the delivery of some rubber merchants in Thailand and Malaysia to overseas customers, resulting in downstream buyers having to turn to other suppliers, further exacerbating the tension in spot

for investors, this is the most powerful message of long willingness, because it shows that downstream natural rubber processing enterprises have fully accepted the rubber price rise. It also shows some experience of using the experimental machine for customers, which makes the experimental machine technology leading in the country. It is clear that in the whole rubber industry, the main profit has slowly moved from the downstream to the upstream

finally, the latent variables of climate change. Whether in China or Southeast Asia, this year's rainfall is more than in previous years. Now it has entered summer, and the typhoon prone period has also followed. This will increase the uncertainty of rubber cutting volume, and there are also great variables in the later production. In the first half of the year, the output has been reduced, and the inventory has been greatly reduced. Phenol: the discount is pure. The market is worried about the output in the second half of the year, so once there is an unexpected situation, it will strongly promote the price of rubber

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content